CS875 - Group Decision-Making: Delphi vs MCDM

CS875 Unit 2 Discussion Board 2 Primary Posting

Joel Maloff

April 24, 2020

Our assignment for the Week 2 Discussion Board 2 primary posting for CS875 is to research and evaluate methods employed by groups for decision making. The first method to be addressed is the Delphi technique.

In ancient Greek mythology, the oracle at Delphi guided petitioners, although the advice was often cryptic and open to interpretation. The Delphi technique for planning, likelihood, and an indication of future technological requirements from consumers involves the use of external experts (Tidd & Bessant, 2018). The Delphi approach is most effective when used for long-term planning. The experts selected to be part of the forecasting come from a variety of areas. They represent acknowledged experts in the field, existing customers, academicians, or even scholars in applicable fields (Tidd & Bessant, 2018). The process begins with a survey of all participants regarding future possibilities and key areas of concern. Evaluation of results occurs, and the process continues until the establishment of a finite set of opinions. The resulting Delphi forecast yields the range of views and projected probabilities for occurrence within the specified time. The use of the Delphi method provides for a broad distribution of ideas but without the introduction of potential bias that can occur in face to face meetings (Tidd & Bessant, 2018).

Another family of group decision-making is the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) process. MCDM includes multi-objective decision making (MODM) and multi-attribute decision making (MADM) (Mohd & Abdullah, 2017). The four generally accepted steps in the MCDM approach are the structure of the process (including decision criteria and evaluation of alternatives), the establishment of criteria weighting, determination of inclusions and exclusions regarding requirements, and the final assessment that leads to a decision (Mohd & Abdullah, 2017).

Both the Delphi method and MCDM can be useful tools in arriving at a group decision. The Delphi technique is focused solely on future projections and can easily be considered part of an organization’s SWOT (strength, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis. A variety of participants, including many from outside of the organization, are invited to participate in an iterative process. Conversely, the MCDM approach is aligned with immediate decisions intended for the benefit of the organization. Additionally, MCDM may use all internal personnel to evaluate a specific project. For example, I have created or evaluated many requests for proposals (RFP). These all have closely followed the steps associated with the MCDM method. A team is formed to create the RFP. This team addresses the specific requirements and the establishment of agreed-up evaluation criteria. Once the request has been published and respondents have submitted their proposals, the evaluation team used the established criteria and performs a weighted factor analysis (WFA) on each proposal. This assists in identifying the best proposals and often leads to a Best and Final Offer (BAFO) stage where the proposing organizations can fine-tune their proposals, allowing for a final decision.

Both the Delphi and MCDM methods have their place in the group decision-making process but are more effective when used in the context of the requirements, including long-term and short term.

References

Mohd, W. R. W., & Abdullah, L. (2017). Aggregation Methods in Group Decision Making: A Decade Survey. Informatica, 41(1), 71-86.

Tidd, J., & Bessant, J. (2018). Managing Innovation (6th Edition). Hoboken: Wiley.